Northland: Countdown-to-letdown
E E Schattschneider was one of the best political scientists of the 20th century. His classic The Semisovereign People is sometimes summarised as “the organised people, no matter how few, usually beat the unorganised people, no matter how many.” He’s right about that in the 21st century, too.
In Northland, the National supporters are organised by the National Party nationwide machine. Winston Peters’ supporters, by contrast, aren’t that well organised. That’s why they’ll likely lose.
Here is an update on the advanced vote tally for Northland, as at this morning:
By-elections normally have a turnout much, much lower than the general election. Typically turnout cuts in half. Given the turnout at the last general election, this would suggest a turnout of maybe 17,000, maybe a little less.
But this this by-election the turnout is enormously higher than in the most recent general election. It is up around 70%, compared to the general election just six months ago. Normally, it would be down 50%.
That increase is astounding. Utterly astounding.
But where is it coming from?
Labour’s machine? Categorically nope.
New Zealand First’s machine? Nope. They don’t have much of a turnout machine.
Sudden discovery of advance voting by Northlanders over the past six months? A stretch.
Northlanders care much more about the by-election issues (bridges, arts centre accounting, ferry ride discounts) than the general election issues? Another stretch.
National’s machine? Yes. That is the cause.
National has poured massive, massive resources into Northland, most of which won’t show up in the financial returns. Polling, focus-grouping, canvassing, MP visits, Ministerial cars, taxpayer bribes, flying squads to drive people to the polls. All of it is off the by-election books. I have heard rumours that National’s total outlay is close to $250,000, not to mention the bill the taxpayer will carry.
That resource buys a lot of organisation, which is where much of the early voting is coming from. Thousands upon thousands of Northland voters are getting calls from National canvassers and Curia staffers, pitching for Osborne and telling them how to vote. Nice young people from Auckland are showing up in their droves from Auckland to drive true-blue residents of Bay of Islands retirement homes to the polls. How sweet of them.
That’s why Winston will very likely lose. For all his charm and charisma, his party is pretty unorganised. And the unorganised tend to lose.
So, my prediction remains a solid National win, not borne of popularity, but borne of organisation. If Peters manages to overcome this should-be-decisive disadvantage and actually take the seat: (1) I will be enormously surprised, and (2) it will show the depths of the Northland public’s ambivalence towards National, Mike Sabin, and Mark Osborne.